India: The Time Has Come

🇮🇳 🇮🇳 #India is set to overtake Japan and Germany# to become the world’s third-largest economy, according to S&P Global and #Morgan #Stanley
S&P’s forecast is based on the projection that India’s annual nominal gross domestic product growth will average 6.3% through 2030. Similarly, Morgan Stanley estimates that India’s GDP is likely to #more #than #double from current levels by 2031
Morgan #Stanley: “India has the conditions in place for an economic boom fueled by offshoring, investment in manufacturing, the energy transition, and the country’s advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers will make [India] the world’s third-largest economy and stock market before the end of the decade.”
S&P Global: “There’s a clear focus by India’s government to become a hub for foreign investors as well as a manufacturing powerhouse, and their main vehicle for doing so is through the Production Linked Incentive Scheme to boost manufacturing and exports. The so-called PLIS, which was introduced in 2020, offers incentives to both domestic and foreign investors in the form of tax rebates and license clearances, among other stimulus. It is very likely that the government is banking on PLIS as a tool to make the Indian economy more export-driven and more inter-linked in global supply chains.”
Morgan Stanley estimates that Indian manufacturing’s share of GDP will “rise from 15.6% of GDP currently to #21%# by 2031” — which implies that manufacturing revenue could increase three times from the current $447 billion to around $1,490 billion
“#Multinationals are more optimistic than ever about investing in India … and the government is encouraging investment by both building infrastructure and supplying land for factories”
Fed Pivot Has Finally Arrived
Powell: “It makes sense to #moderate the pace of our rate increases# as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases #may come as soon as the December meeting#”
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