🚨 🚨 Here’s The Scoop: None of the data so far is anywhere close to the what the Fed must see before lowering rates, with the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures deflator getting far more weight than anything else. After three months of not-great inflation data, we suspect that policymakers will need to see at least three better ones before they cut rates — and that means, barring a shock-induced recession, that a July cut is the absolute most optimistic scenario for doves
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