UBS forecast USD/CNY to hit 7.5 by June 2025. while growth is expected to accelerate in China, effective tariff rates could rise dramatically and be a headwind. CNY has only partially priced in this. US activity likely to stay robust, economic data is likely to stay strong in the near term; ongoing tariff worries for the rest of the world, if new tariffs are introduced, the US dollar could appreciate further; US dollar to stay stronger for longer; expect the Fed to cut for a total of 50bps of easing, in 2Q and 3Q
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