The real test for the Trump Trade comes now, as Trump takes office. Tariffs are the biggest risk, sparking fears that the administration’s plans could lead to more prolonged and unpredictable trade wars than during his first presidency. Wall Street pros also worry about how any actions on immigration will affect the US economy. And they fear heightened geopolitical tensions with Trump already taking aim at some traditional US allies like Canada, Mexico and Europe. “Forecast is the polite way to say guess, but we have to make assumptions about these policies because they will affect the economic outlook,” Citigroup’s chief US economist Andrew Hollenhorst said on a 2025 forecast call
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