The Wealth Effect

The recent Wall Street sell-off, marked by significant cross-asset losses, has raised concerns about the potential economic impact of a prolonged market downturn. This situation highlights the “wealth effect” phenomenon, where asset values influence consumer spending behavior.

The Wealth Effect and Economic Impact

The wealth effect suggests that as people’s perceived wealth increases, they tend to spend more, stimulating economic growth. Conversely, when asset values decline, consumers may reduce spending, potentially leading to economic contraction.

Current Market Situation

Wall Street traders experienced the largest cross-asset losses since the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening campaign peaked in 2023. The sell-off has been attributed to various factors, including:
• Tariffs and trade tensions • Softening economic growth • Potential revitalization of Europe • Concerns about inflation and interest rates

Economic Vulnerability

The speed and scale of the recent market plunge serve as a reminder of the markets’ potential to trigger economic instability. Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group, warns that the current economic expansion may not withstand a stock market correction exceeding 12-15%.

Potential Consequences

If the market downturn persists, it could lead to:

1. Reduced consumer spending 2. Decreased business investments 3. Potential job losses 4. Overall economic slowdown
Mitigating Factors

While the situation is concerning, it’s important to note that:

1. The current losses are not yet at panic levels 2. Market safeguards, such as circuit breakers, exist to prevent extreme crashes 3. Central banks and government policies can help stabilize markets during turbulent times

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Money Market Funds Attract Record Inflows

Money market fund assets reached a record-breaking $7.03 trillion as of Wednesday, March 5, 2025, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI). This represents a significant increase of $51.15 billion from the previous week

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Hedge Funds Have Been Dumping Stocks

Hedge funds have dumped global stocks at an unprecedented rate over the past two weeks. In the period ending March 3rd, 2025, hedge funds executed a significant sell-off of global equities at the fastest pace on record. This reduction in equities exposure by institutional investors has surpassed the levels seen during previous major market downturns, including the 2018 correction, the 2020 Covid-19 crash, and the 2022 bear market

The liquidation has generated the lowest rolling 2-week notional net flow Z-score since records began, indicating an extraordinary level of stock dumping

The S&P 500 experienced a drop of 3.5% over these two weeks, with trading volumes increasing by 25% from the previous period

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index declined by 3.8%, both reflecting similar trends in trading volumes

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Gold: Buy On Dips

The gold industry remains largely isolated from the negative impact of global tariffs. In fact, many gold producers could benefit from foreign currency depreciations triggered by these tariffs, as a significant portion of their cost base is denominated in local currencies

Tariffs can create market uncertainty, which often drives investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, potentially increasing demand and prices

Over 600 tons of gold have been moved to New York’s vaults since December 2024, an unusually large amount for the city. The rush to move gold to the US has tightened supply in London

There’s increased demand for kilogram bars in the US, which are typically used in Asia, the Middle East, and India

JPMorgan has the highest gold price forecast for 2025. JPMorgan projects that gold will reach $3,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2025. This forecast is tied with Goldman Sachs, which also predicts gold to exceed $3,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2025

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#GoldIndustry #GlobalTariffs #CurrencyDepreciation #InvestmentOpportunities #EconomicResilience

Traders See 3 Rate Cuts In 2025

TRADERS STILL EXPECT ABOUT 75BP OF FED EASING THIS YEAR. The first rate cut is not expected until the Fed’s June 18 meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) consensus forecast indicates that the federal funds rate will stand at 3.4% at the end of 2025, down from previous estimates

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Traders Are Buying JPY

US DOLLAR HITS NEW FIVE-MONTH LOW VS YEN OF 147.05 YEN, LAST DOWN 0.6% AT 147.11. The USD/JPY pair has been declining, reaching a new annual low of 148.10 on March 4, 2025. Traders are selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen. There’s mounting anticipation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year, strengthening the yen. Traders have increased bets on the Federal Reserve resuming its policy-easing cycle, with an 86% probability of a rate cut in June

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Nike’s Awakening: A Multifaceted Resurgence in 2025

👟 👟 Jefferies highlights that Nike has already seen strong responses to its key releases, the Nike Vomero 18 and Pegasus Premium. Search interest for ‘Nike Vomero’ is up 138% year-over-year

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Proof: Stocks Are Better Than Bonds By A Long Shot

Stocks Are A Better Investment Than Bonds: Over time, stocks generally outperform bonds. Last year, stocks gained 24.1%, surpassing six of the past 10 years’ returns, while the Core Bond Index rose 1.4%. Over the past decade, the US Market Index is up an average of 12.2% per year, while bonds have returned an average of 1.5% per year

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AirAsia’s Turbulent Skies: Red Flags For Investors And Travelers

✈️ 🇲🇾 Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) is set to invest approximately $100 million in AirAsia.We are wary. AirAsia’s parent company, Capital A, recorded a loss in 2024

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