Bond investors are increasingly concerned as the 2-year breakeven inflation rate has surged to 3.27%, its highest level since the March 2023 banking crisis, signaling market expectations of inflation exceeding 3.0% over the next two years. This rate has more than doubled since the Fed’s policy pivot in September 2024, while long-term inflation expectations have climbed to 4.1%, a peak not seen since 1993. Additionally, Americans’ 1-year inflation expectations have spiked from 2.6% to 5.0% in under three months, their highest since November 2022, heightening fears of a looming recession
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