UBS strategist Sean Simonds warns that U.S. markets are rapidly shifting toward a recessionary regime, with tariff-sensitive stocks being “aggressively repriced” and now down 20% relative to the broader market. Simonds highlights that consumer discretionary stocks, which are typically vulnerable during economic slowdowns or recessions, have already underperformed and could face even greater downside as earnings expectations are swiftly revised lower and hedge fund positioning adjusts. UBS models indicate further negative momentum for consumer discretionary names such as Kohl’s, while sectors like communication services and utilities (e.g., Live Nation and Ameren) are expected to relatively outperform in this environment
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