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EU Trade Clampdown Looms Over 27% of China’s Exports, Goldman Warns

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🇪🇺 🇨🇳 Goldman Sachs estimates that the European Union’s existing and proposed trade measures against China could cover roughly 27% of China’s annual nominal exports to the bloc, underscoring the high stakes in the ongoing economic standoff. While these curbs do not directly equate to proportional export losses—since actual impact depends on final policy details and implementation—Goldman economists Xinquan Chen and Chelsea Song warn that broader restrictions could erode China’s market-share gains, though cost competitiveness, leverage in critical materials, and Europe’s commercial interests may cushion the blow. With the EU absorbing 15% of China’s overseas sales last year and shipments rising recently, the bloc has become a growing policy risk for China’s export outlook. Key EU proposals include new tariffs on plug-in hybrids and an extension of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which Goldman notes represents a major escalation given China’s large exposure.

U.S. Readies Major Financial Blitz on Iran as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate

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‼️ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 The U.S. is preparing what it calls its “greatest financial offensive” against Iran as Tehran threatens to seize ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s foreign minister will visit Tehran on Tuesday to continue talks on arrangements for the waterway, while Iran’s new Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, has warned that Tehran could target the interests of oil-rich neighboring states if they support further U.S. efforts to isolate Iran.

Megabanks Sit on the Sidelines as Deregulation Fails to Spark a Wave

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‼️ Citigroup and Wells Fargo are the only U.S. megabanks with capacity under the 10% national deposit cap to acquire a major regional lender, yet neither has acted: Wells Fargo’s Charlie Scharf is open to a transformative deal, while Citi’s Jane Fraser prioritizes organic growth. Even as regulatory barriers ease, North American bank M&A value fell by more than half in the first half of 2026, though Bain forecasts that consolidation could create one to three new $1 trillion-plus megabanks by 2030 and reduce the number of regional banks from 49 to as few as 30