‼️ 🇨🇳 China likely entered 2H 2026 on the same uneven footing that defined the first half: AI-led manufacturing and exports remain strong, but they are failing to offset a deepening investment slump and weak consumer demand. July data may also show disruption from typhoons, flooding and shipping delays.
The core risk is clear: China’s AI buildout lifts industrial output and productivity—but its capital-intensive, highly automated nature offers limited support for jobs, household income or persistent deflationary pressures.
‼️ Bond traders scaled back expectations for a Fed rate hike this year as falling oil prices boosted confidence that inflation is easing. Treasury yields dropped up to 6 bps across the curve, though the 30-year fell less amid a $25 billion auction that priced at the highest yield for that maturity since 2001.
‼️ Air India Group will screen its more than 5,000 pilots for psychoactive substances in an unprecedented one-time action after a captain allegedly tested positive for illegal drugs following a mid-air plunge during a Phuket-Delhi flight that injured 17 passengers