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Update: Stocks extended gains, Treasury yields jumped while the dollar hit the highest since July as early returns bolstered trades that have for months risen with Donald Trump’s election prospects.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk said a Republican sweep may push the S&P 500 up by 3%, while a decline of the same size is possible should the Democrats win both the presidency and Congress. Andrew Tyler at JPMorgan Securities said anything other than a Democratic sweep is likely to cause stocks to rise.

Saxo: Dollar strength on the back of Trump odds improving in the early vote count is really hitting the Mexican peso, euro and yen. Thin early Asia market liquidity and excitement from early results has amplified market moves of pricing in higher Trump odds.

UBS: While some equity market volatility this week is inevitable, we do not expect the likeliest election outcomes to change our 12-month view on US equities. We expect the S&P 500 to rise to 6,600 by the end of 2025. Our 10-year yield forecast is 3.5% for June 2025.

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