‼️ Fed may now have to hike twice or increase by a half point in December, traders bet. Odds for an Oct. 28 quarter-point hike increased to 53.7% from just 22.1% a day ago. December odds are even more interesting. There is now a greater than 95% chance of at least one hike before the year is out
‼️ Traders now assign a 49.3% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the October 2026 meeting, versus a 50.7% chance that policymakers leave rates unchanged
‼️ BREAKING: September CPI inflation rises to 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6% Core CPI inflation rises to 2.6%, also above expectations of 2.5%. This officially marks the third highest US inflation reading since September 2023. Rate hike expectations are rising on the news.
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‼️ 🇬🇧 BREAKING: UK markets are now open and gilt yields are falling across the curve as traders pare bets on rate hikes from the Bank of England. UK bonds are slightly outperforming their European peers. The FTSE 100 has opened broadly flat, lagging gains in continental indices as it misses out on a rebound in technology shares.