Alpha Binwani Capital: “Improved clarity on the Fed’s inflation resolve—reaffirming its independence, credibility and reaction function—is fueling bullishness, though oil-price and AI risks keep investors from fully committing; with earnings growth robust, credit spreads contained and the VIX subdued, US equity fundamentals stay supportive, and we remain constructive on the S&P 500 reaching 8,000 by year-end provided the yield curve avoids inversion, even as diesel prices signal inflation risks that could turn the Fed more hawkish—especially if the Iran war isn’t resolved quickly enough to cool oil, with three more rate hikes priced in by July and 10-year yields above 5% making Treasuries newly competitive—yet resilient growth should keep investors broadening equity exposure rather than rotating out, as seen in tech’s shift toward stronger software performance versus stalled, volatile semiconductors, while sharply compressed S&P 500 valuations near their long-term average reflect surging earnings estimates and investor reluctance to pay up for growth, leaving an upcoming earnings season as the key catalyst to revive sentiment and risk appetite”
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