Malaysia: EPF Sounds Alarm

🇲🇾 🇲🇾 On 13 Dec we warned that EPF Withdrawals Would Weaken Malaysia’s Consumption Power:
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OCBC warns that there has been a shift to consumption which is powerful in pushing economic growth but it is not able to promote robust and sustained growth over time by itself. The bank also says that the structural impact on incomes and savings means that there is very little pent-up consumption
OCBC also sounds an alarm of the significant increase in unemployment and underemployment which has become a structural feature of the Malaysian economy. This has been made worse by the lockdowns and employment recovery policies have the same ineffective targeting approach as before
OCBC: While from now on we expect to see a recovery phase but slower than expectations and certainly not 6-7 per cent forecast by others. Growth will more likely be around half of this in 2.5-3.5 per cent range
OCBC: We do not have a balanced growth model in Malaysia with recovery likely to be pushed by consumption not investment. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has caused significant structural damage which needs investment to put right. Without that, the damage of the past will impact growth prospects in the future and high growth, while possible, is not coming back any time soon, unless investment improves
Malaysia is likely to emerge from the crisis as worse performer among the larger Asean countries and if as has been predicted already the move to the endemic phase is postponed by the Omicron variant the transition to slow and fragile recovery may be derailed, especially if the same futile policy of lockdowns re-emerges
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