The bond market is doubling down on the prospect of a US recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a return to bigger interest-rate hikes to cool inflation and the economy
As swaps traders price in a full percentage point of Fed hikes over the next four meetings, the yield on two-year Treasury notes touched 5.04% on Wednesday (8 Mar) its highest level since 2007
As a result, the closely-watched spread between 2- and 10-year yields showed a discount larger than a percentage point for the first time since 1981
Traders upgraded the odds of a half-point rate increase on March 22 from about one-in-four to around two-in-three, raising the stakes for February employment data set to be released on Friday, and the consumer price index in around a week’s time
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