The so-called dot plot, which the Fed uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, indicate that a majority of officials (10 out of 18 members) expect only one more rate hike ahead by the end of this year
For 2024, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee projected that rates would fall to 4.1% —Powell said that the base case scenario for the FOMC is no rate declines in 2023
While the Fed hiked rates by a quarter percentage point despite recent turmoil in the banking sector —it indicated increases are near an end
Powell Signals The End Is Near: “A couple of weeks ago, we thought we would have to raise terminal rate. We could think of the banking turmoil as a rate hike, or perhaps more than that”
Along with its ninth hike since March 2022, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee noted that future increases are not assured and will depend largely on incoming data
That wording is a departure from previous statements which indicated “ongoing increases” would be appropriate to bring down inflation
The softening tone came amid a banking crisis that has raised concerns about the system’s stability
The increase takes the benchmark federal funds rate to a target range between 4.75%-5%
Powell’s Parting Shot: “Financial conditions seem to have tightened,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted. “We’ll be looking to see how serious is this and does it look like it’s going to be sustained. And if it is, it could easily have a significant macroeconomic effect, and we would factor that into our policy decisions,” he added
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