Can The Dollar Be Replaced? Think Again
The Bank for International Settlements estimates that the daily turnover in the foreign-exchange market is $7.5 trillion daily. Global trade for all of last year was about $32 trillion. The dollar is on one side of 88% of currency trades, little changed from 1989 (when the dollar was one part of 90% of currency trades). China may be the most important trade partner for more countries than the U.S., but the dollar’s role remains paramount
The Chinese yuan is simply not convertible. It isn’t a question of technology but policy. China’s foreign-exchange rate is closely managed and purposefully opaque. Its capital markets are developing but aren’t sufficiently transparent. Including the yuan in the International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights in 2015 was supposed to spark growth in yuan reserves, but as of the end of the third quarter of 2022, the yuan’s share of international reserves was only about 2.75%. The yuan’s share of Swift transactions briefly rose above 3% early last year, but by February 2023, its share had slumped to about 2.2%
Even China’s Belt and Road Initiative, seen as a power projection exercise, cannot be divorced from the dollar. Initially, China made yuan loans, but recipients quickly swapped into dollars. So now, Chinese banks finance BRI loans with dollars
China may be Saudi Arabia’s biggest customer, but there’s no sign that Saudi Arabia will price oil in yuan. It makes no sense on several levels, including that the Saudi riyal is pegged to the dollar. When the Federal Reserve changes interest rates, the Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority and several other Middle Eastern countries typically quickly match the move
China has hardly abandoned the dollar. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, once considered a challenge to the World Bank, has struck a cooperative accord with it. The AIIB takes U.S. dollar subscriptions and has been joined by U.S. allies, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and Israel
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