JPY: The Only Way Is Up

🇯🇵 🇯🇵 JPY: The Only Way Is Up
BNP Paribas: We remain medium term JPY bulls, expecting the currency to benefit from narrower USDJPY rates spreads, and risks of structural repatriation or increased hedge ratios
Bank Of America: We remain bearish USD in the medium-term to long-term, on valuation and assuming inflation will eventually move towards the target, but the timing remains uncertain
Danske: We still have a bearish strategic view on USDJPY and expect it to trade at ¥127 in 3 months. We think tweaks to the YCC are more likely to occur on either the June or the July meeting
Barclays: We retain our outlook for YCC revisions from June. Such revisions would create JPY appreciation pressures of up to around 5%. On this assumption, we see USDJPY falling to around 120-125 at end Mar 2024
CIBC: We maintain a bullish bias on JPY over the coming months, targeting USDJPY at 125 by end Q2 and 123 by end Q3
Bank of America: Our economists expect the BOJ to tweak YCC by the Jul MPM, with the Jun MPM being the base case but do not rule out changes at the Apr or Jul MPM
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