🇪🇺 🇨🇳 Goldman Sachs estimates that the European Union’s existing and proposed trade measures against China could cover roughly 27% of China’s annual nominal exports to the bloc, underscoring the high stakes in the ongoing economic standoff. While these curbs do not directly equate to proportional export losses—since actual impact depends on final policy details and implementation—Goldman economists Xinquan Chen and Chelsea Song warn that broader restrictions could erode China’s market-share gains, though cost competitiveness, leverage in critical materials, and Europe’s commercial interests may cushion the blow. With the EU absorbing 15% of China’s overseas sales last year and shipments rising recently, the bloc has become a growing policy risk for China’s export outlook. Key EU proposals include new tariffs on plug-in hybrids and an extension of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which Goldman notes represents a major escalation given China’s large exposure.
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