‼️ 🇬🇧 BofA Securities trimmed its 2027 UK growth forecast by 10 basis points to 1.2% on higher energy prices and Autumn Budget uncertainty, while lifting 2026 growth by 10 basis points to 1.2% after a stronger first half and leaving 2028 at 1.5%, with upside risks from resilient sentiment, August PMI beats led by services, and potential limited fiscal loosening that avoids a sharp tightening in financial conditions. Inflation expectations were pushed up, with Q4 2026 headline inflation now seen at 3.4% (up 20bp) and 2027 at 2.6% (up 30bp) due to higher oil and gas prices, while core inflation was raised modestly to 2.8% in 2026 (unchanged) and 2.3% in 2027 (up 10bp), and headline inflation is now expected to peak at 3.5% in November 2026 and stay above 3% until Q2 2027. The Bank of England rate call was kept on hold through 2026 with a single 25bp cut to 3.5% in November 2027, though BofA flagged the higher inflation path makes the outlook a “close call,” with September hikes unlikely but November, December and February still live. Meanwhile, the labour market is softening—unemployment at 4.9%, payrolls and vacancies falling—with the unemployment rate expected to peak near 5.2% mid‑2027.
AlgoTrader 