BlackRock and JPMorgan Bet on EM Bonds as Rate-Cut Cushion Drives Outperformance

‼️ BlackRock and JPMorgan are increasing allocations to emerging-market bonds as local-currency EM debt has returned over 3% this year, outperforming US Treasuries and European peers which are down 0.6%. With inflation in developing economies averaging just 3.8%—roughly one-third of 2022 shock levels—EM central banks now have about 1 percentage point more policy cushion to absorb price pressures, enabling recent rate cuts in Brazil, Turkey and Hungary. BlackRock is also positioning in bonds where it expects central banks to hold rates steady, betting on policy divergence and relative stability as key drivers of outperformance.

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