Alpha Binwani Capital: “If the Iran war remains unresolved, the BoE may be forced to raise rates in November—not to lower oil prices, but to stop higher fuel, utility and import costs from feeding into wages, services inflation and household expectations. The UK is especially vulnerable because energy costs pass quickly into household bills and higher imported-energy and goods prices can worsen its terms of trade. While traders have slightly pared back near-term hike bets, they still expect tightening eventually, with markets recently implying about an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point November increase and roughly 47 basis points of total tightening by year-end. Goldman Sachs expects a November hike, while Citi sees one move later in 2026 followed by another in early 2027”
AlgoTrader 