Alpha Binwani Capital: “Heading into Japan’s first five-day Silver Week since 2015 (Sept 21-23 holiday), the yen looks vulnerable: thin Tokyo-session liquidity across three straight days leaves USD/JPY exposed to outsized, gappy moves from any US dollar strength, oil spike, or Treasury yield shift, and the new 1.25% policy rate doesn’t even take effect until September 24 — the day after the holiday ends — so markets will be trading the announcement through a policy void; a Friday New York-session rate check already signals the MOF is on alert, and while officials are more likely to lean on verbal warnings than fresh intervention unless USD/JPY re-tests 160+, the August intervention’s Saturday, New York-session execution proves a holiday is no automatic shield if the slide turns disorderly — the key level to watch is whether USD/JPY holds the 158-160 band, since a decisive break above 160 with Tokyo desks absent is the most likely trigger for either a fresh operation or sharply escalated warnings from Katayama when Japan reopens September 24, the same day the new rate formally bites”
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