Short-term relief hinges on one thing: an end to the Iran War and the global energy crisis driving inflation expectations. That’s the lever policymakers don’t control.
Long-term, this isn’t a war problem — it’s a deficit problem. Years of compounding inflation and structural overspending built this yield curve, and no ceasefire fixes that.
The ultra-low-rate era isn’t coming back. Higher for longer isn’t a forecast anymore.
It’s the baseline.
