Healey Holds the Line on Taxes as Iran War Costs Squeeze Fiscal Buffer

‼️ 🇬🇧 Chancellor John Healey ruled out broad-based tax rises in his first Budget, using part of his fiscal buffer to absorb Iran war costs as higher global yields added £14 billion to this year’s debt-interest bill. The OBR put fiscal headroom at £15 billion in 2029-30, down from £23.6 billion in March but broadly matching market expectations of £15.2 billion, before rising to £22 billion in 2030-31. Borrowing is forecast at 4.2% of GDP this year, versus March’s 3.6% estimate, declining to 3.4% next year, 2.9% in 2028-29, 2.1% in 2029-30 and 1.8% in both subsequent years. Public sector net financial liabilities are projected at 83.2% of GDP in 2026-27, up from March’s 82.6% forecast, before falling to 82.3% by 2030-31.

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