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Google’s TPU Boom: Morgan Stanley Sees $200B Chip Windfall as Pricing Power Jumps to $27B/GW

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‼️ 🧠 Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak raised Google’s custom TPU (tensor processing unit) revenue outlook, citing reports that Google has committed to supply roughly 1 million TPUs (~1.3 GW) for about $35 billion—implying ~$27 billion per GW, up from the firm’s prior $20 billion/GW assumption at 20% gross margin. The bank now models 1P TPU system sales at $27 billion/GW with a 30% gross margin, supported by Google’s expanded custom-silicon deal with Marvell (MRVL). On this basis, Morgan Stanley expects Google to sell 0.3 GW of TPU systems in 2H 2026, 3.2 GW in 2027, and 4.2 GW in 2028, translating to $84 billion and $108 billion of TPU-related Google Cloud revenue in 2027 and 2028, respectively, and a potential $200 billion TPU revenue stream over the next few years.

China’s Shadow Oil, UAE Cash Lifeline Keep Iran’s Trade Engine Humming

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‼️ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 China reported $9.96 billion in bilateral trade with Iran in 2025, excluding an estimated $31.2 billion of unreported Iranian crude exports, most of which flow to independent Chinese refiners disguised as Malaysian or Indonesian oil and settled via non-dollar intermediaries. The UAE remains Iran’s key financial gateway, with bilateral trade of about $28 billion in 2024, while Turkey-Iran trade totalled $5.7 billion; Iranian gas imports into Turkey surged this year ahead of the expiry of their 25-year supply agreement, lifting Iran’s share of Turkey’s gas imports to 18.6%. India, once among Iran’s largest trading partners, saw bilateral trade decline to roughly $1.6 billion in the year through March 2026.

Warsh Faces Jackson Hole Test as Markets Demand Fed Clarity

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‼️ 🇺🇸 Kevin Warsh’s first major speech as Fed chair at Jackson Hole on Friday will test his pared-back communications approach after a shaky press conference last month sparked a bond-market backlash. Critics say he has been too opaque about the economic outlook and the rationale for holding policy steady, while Warsh remains determined not to give investors explicit guidance on future rate moves. The challenge has intensified after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unexpectedly announced US debt buybacks aimed at lowering long-term yields. Markets will be watching for clearer explanations of the Fed’s assessment of inflation and policy risks—particularly after Warsh declined to frame further rate hikes as a plausible tool and made remarks about the 2% inflation target that fueled speculation it could be reconsidered in January

Private Equity’s $3.8 Trillion Exit Trap Spurs Structured-Equity Boom

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‼️ Private equity firms, which amassed nearly $4 trillion in assets during the low-rate era, are struggling to sell portfolio companies as higher borrowing costs depress valuations and dealmaking. With $3.8 trillion of unsold assets and average holding periods stretching to seven years, the exit backlog has become a structural industry problem, dragging down cash distributions to investors. In response, firms are turning to “structured equity”—hybrid debt-and-equity deals that can boost reported fund performance and provide liquidity while allowing managers to retain companies they cannot yet sell at attractive prices, though some institutional investors worry this prioritizes upfront cash over long-term returns.

HSBC Pours $3 Billion Into India Bonds as Diaspora Dollars Drive Down Borrowing Costs

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‼️ 🇮🇳 HSBC Holdings has deployed at least $3 billion into Indian government bonds since July, primarily in the 5-year maturity segment, as it seeks to invest funds raised under the Reserve Bank of India’s FCNR(B) diaspora dollar deposit program. The UK lender has mobilized over $10 billion through the scheme—outpacing global peers with $6.3 billion collected by July 30—while foreign banks have collectively raised $65.4 billion. Such inflows into sovereign debt, particularly shorter-duration bonds, are expected to help lower corporate borrowing costs in India.

Xi’s Anti-Graft Drive Goes Global as China Weighs Overseas Corruption Crackdown

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‼️ 🇨🇳 China’s top legislature is reviewing a draft Anti-Cross-Border Corruption Law that would formally empower authorities to pursue corruption cases overseas, extending President Xi Jinping’s sweeping anti-graft campaign beyond China’s borders. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee began its first reading of the bill during its Tuesday-to-Friday session, with the legislation designed to codify Beijing’s existing cross-border anti-corruption practices.